Summary: "Electrification - Can the Grid Cope?"
SOURCE DOCUMENT: Watt-Logic - @KathrynPorter26 (on X/Twitter
Our Summary: so close to our own conclusions over the last few years - a great warning - but who is listening???
Core Thesis: The UK's aggressive electrification plans for heating, transport, and industry are fundamentally unrealistic and risk causing grid failures before 2030. The nation faces a dangerous mismatch between ambitious targets and practical delivery capabilities.
Key Findings:
Demand Projections:
- Electrification could add 7-10 GW by 2030
- AI data centres add another 6 GW
- Total: up to 15 GW of new demand by 2030
- Yet existing demand may require rationing even without this growth
The Triple Crisis:
- Supply Crisis: Ageing gas and nuclear plants retiring faster than firm replacement capacity can be built. Wind/solar cannot provide dispatchable power needed for reliability.
- Deployment Stalling: Heat pumps, EVs, and industrial fuel-switching are all falling behind targets despite government pressure.
- Infrastructure Crisis: Gas network deterioration threatens backup power supplies. Distribution grids can't handle local electrification loads.
Reality Check on Targets:
Heating: Heat pump installations far below the 600,000/year needed. Public resistance high due to costs (£10,000-20,000), space requirements, and performance issues in cold weather.
Transport: EV adoption slowing despite subsidies. Charging infrastructure inadequate. Grid can't support mass adoption in most neighborhoods.
Industry: De-industrialisation reducing demand faster than electrification can increase it. High energy costs driving manufacturing abroad.
International Comparison: Norway, Netherlands, and Germany all facing similar shortfalls. Even Germany, despite renewable commitment, now recognizes need for significant new gas generation capacity.
Porter's Central Warning: "It will be difficult to meet existing demand without rationing, let alone any additional demand from electrification."
Recommendations:
- Urgently pivot to securing dispatchable (firm) power generation
- Invest in new gas generation, even unabated, for grid security
- Make realistic assumptions about 2030 delivery capabilities
- Follow Germany's pragmatic approach
- Prioritize public safety over net zero promises
Bottom Line: The report argues that Britain's electrification strategy is built on wishful thinking rather than engineering reality. Without immediate course correction—particularly new gas generation—the UK faces escalating supply shortfalls and system failures, with electricity rationing more likely than successful electrification.
The report emphasizes that this isn't an argument against climate action, but against dangerous policy that pretends intermittent renewables can replace firm generation while simultaneously adding massive new electric loads to an already fragile system.